U.S. Leveraged Loan Universe Grows 34% in Two Years; July Defaults Light

  • Fitch Ratings expects the July TTM institutional leveraged loan default rate to fall to 2.3% after two straight months at 2.5%
  • The July TTM retail default rate stands at roughly 4%, the lowest mark since June 2017 and down from 7% last month
  • Fitch’s Top Loans of Concern list fell to $19 billion and is down 30% since the start of the year
  • Although the Top Loans of Concern shrank, our Tier 2 Loans of Concern grew to $51 billion from $46 billion
  • The loan market has grown 9% since December 2017 and 34% since June 2016 and now stands at $1.25 trillion, modestly larger than the $1.20 trillion for high yield bonds
  • The June TTM first-lien par-weighted average emergence bid level stands at 74%, up from 65%